Following Illumina's loss, Adobe throws in the towel in its merger attempt with Figma. Meanwhile CNBC's Jim Cramer chides the antitrust defense bar and agencies release merger guidelines.
The important thing is to keep up the antitrust momentum. If it stalls then a long time could pass before there is another opportunity to reign in monopolies.
Corporate managers abandoning merger + acquisition deals out of concern that the FTC will challenge them is a phenomenon not seen in over 50 years. As this miasma of anxiety settles in over Wall Street, we can (finally) see the cracks in the neo-liberal order, with its pundits and supporters making fear-based claims that are collapsing in the face of a run of anti-trust victories that promise to continue. The deep-seated consolidation mentality of yore helps explain the resistance to a rational competition policy, and the lineup of “serious” folks who support it suggest that the corporatist approach will linger for some time, especially given the corporate biases of Federal Court judges, including those nominated by Democrats. The battles continue, the war is not close to being won, and in the meantime, we hope that the anti-trust infrastructure being constructed now can be sustained for decades to come.
And the EU just brought formal proceedings against X for several suspected infringements and disinformation, hate speech, etc. under their new Digital Services Act, which has tough new rules for Big Tech (and huge fines!). In the US some companies are pulling their ads from X. Happy Holidays!
I have to ask the question... What does this bode for the financing of the Trump campaign? A bunch of pi$$ed off CEOs with deep pockets and a presidential election year in a post-Citizens United America could help ensure a Trump victory...
Well, Koch, in particular, has been raising money for Nikki Haley. and other big pocket pacs have been raising money for not Trump Republicans. It seems that Trump is too off the wall for some rich guys.
"It seems that Trump is too off the wall for some rich guys."
Totally agree. Biden would normally be a no-brainer for the C-suite crowd over totally crazy. But if they feel that another 4 years of Biden could reverse much of neoliberal policies that have made them rich, they might make a deal with the devil in hopes they can control him. That was actually the concern, but I didn't really explain it well.
May not see that, TELL it gets down to a two person race. BUT, well we see a three horse race? Note: and wish those that working on save Democracy on global scale. SHOW how Russia is or did become a democracy. When Puten first got elected. That was a 5 horse race where Puten won with about 22% of vote and last place got around 18%.
NOW, no I would not call what Russia has or held that democracy. but in fact is what I fear we`re heading to at best. IF, something is done to educate people on this matter.
Great piece Matt. Than you. This year, I've recommended your substack to multiple friends to replace the less than informed media we used to rely on. They are greatful for your indepth reporting. Also, podcasts I listen to are very much complimentary of the antitrust actions. I think more and more of us are informed by the alternatives to CNBC (gave that up in 2001) and the other sources you cited. And Larry Summers? Lol.
I just saw that after reading this - combined with abandoning the Adobe-Figma merger - they are on a ROLL. That might even make my far-right wing father vote for Biden if he were still alive.
"But Wall Street dealmakers and lawyers are the most irrationally confident people I’ve ever met, and they are now voicing public doubts about consolidation." My impression is that a lot of the confidence is a ploy to get what they want. Literal confidence-men who hope that exerting influence across an array of information networks will bring the outcomes that they wish for and which will make them money. The claims they make can always be proven later once they have enough money/power. That they are changing their tune might indicate their influence isn't as strong as it once was.
Regarding “Both [Adobe and Figma] will go their separate ways, competing to bring the best design software integrated with AI image generation,” I think it’s highly likely that Figma will continue to explore acquisition, this time with less explicitly design-oriented acquirers (Microsoft or the like).
Investors want a return on their investment, an exit is inevitable. And I don’t think Figma will IPO.
Opinions on monopolies aside, Figma is a great tool, and I worry that its utility will decline once it’s owned by a company that cares less about supporting designers than an Adobe might.
The Lufthansa monopoly which is part of the Star Alliance with United. After flying to the USA with Lufthansa, I missed my flight because my first flight was delayed by an hour, in fact it just fell out of the row, and so we were an hour late to Frankfurt, which meant I could not catch my connection, but I could have the last plane to US. Noticing that my daughter will fly in a week from a different German city to Frankfurt and then the US, I was worried because the woman there told me that Berlin is one of the 3 cities that constantly have delays. First of all, Lufthansa offers a student rate, which was supposed to be 800 rt, but ended up being 1000. I noticed that around 400 of it is fees. Anyway, I decided to rebook her for a flight an hour earlier, so she could still go to some classes before coming home for the holidays. First the software offered me a change for $150, which was cheaper then the 450 for a regular ticket from Berlin to Frankfurt. I did not want to get her a separate ticket, because I wanted her luggage to go through. However, after an hour of trying it would not go through. So, then I called Lufthansa. My customer service representative Damien, told me that to change one leg of one part of her trip would cost me $1219, which is crazy. He got annoyed when I said that. I was particularly annoyed because on their website Lufthansa says that they change all flights for free after August 24. So, Damien told me to go online if I did not like what he said. So, I went to the Lufthansa chat. That is where I was told first that they could rebook to the hour earlier departure time for $150, but then suddenly the chat help could not, because she told me it was a different category. I did not notice this different category, but I don't know what they mean, if is leaving Berlin an hour earlier, and they have seats, and also, if she misses her flight to the USA for the night, they will have to rebook her for free and put her up in a hotel. They could have had 150 from me to avoid this. I complained to them, and have not heard. Now, I am going to complain to the FAA. ---An update to the story is that my daughter flew. Her plane left Berlin a predictable 1:30 minutes late, and made it to Frankfurt in about 50 minutes. That left her with about 20 minutes to catch the last flight to Chicago. That is going from A to the Z69 the very end and passing through toll. So, she took a big puff from her inhaler asked them to call ahead and ran to the point where she made it, since the plane took off 30 minutes late, and was sick feeling. She got to Chicago and where was her suitcase. After 2.5 hours getting through customs she found her suitcase was not there. She has nothing. She has been sharing my hairbrush and we scrounged up a toothbrush for her. She put in a ticket online and we have heard nothing. That was Friday. So, Lufthansa, lies, was going to charge me 1219€ to change a ticket that if I just bought that one leg from Berlin to Frankfurt would have cost 450+ fees and taxes. She is here and that is the most important thing, but she has a lot of treasured clothing in her bag, her asthma medicines, and Lufthansa must all be on holiday because there is absolutely no one handling this situation. At the airport, without even checking they just told everyone if their bags were not there were still in Frankfurt and would be coming. However, one kid had taken a wrong bag and was trying to get back in to return it. My friend told me that since it was the to leg and not the from, they would give you a 1500€ voucher for replacing your things (which is a lot more than they wanted to get from me to move her to a flight an hour earlier). No wonder their unions have to strike if this is how they manage their money. Since no one told us anything, we will keep our receipts as we replace the necessities. What receipts. Where can we replace her clothing on Christmas Eve? Sounds like they just don't care.
Well, here is some ally on the quest to break big bank monopolies. I just got a job offer today for “We are looking for a Mainframe Production Support Engineer with 4-7 years of experience in development and maintenance of Mainframe applications for one of our biggest client in banking & capital markets domain. Experience in handling critical application outages in large scale operations & driving root cause analysis and remediation. Troubleshoot technical issues to establish the root cause of problems and form a solution or workaround.” A lot of banks still rely on these Jurassic tools. They run their system on tools that are simply dying, as are the few remaining humans that still know how to run them. It’s beyond me that these banks are still in business.
Well reading this and noting, THE PEOPLE like Cramer. Where when he got his TV show on stock picks. Where he gave very bad picks, over or from market those trying and done just manipulating market for short turn profits. Cost from small investors or those that do not understand. Case in point, two year or so ago. Where people on Reddit, started a market move on, I think poor company to start with do not remember the name of. BUT, You had the big player on Wall street, Stating we can`t have this, That`s our game or having others doing what they been doing. making of big short moves then just fall apart. Goal to win on long and short, quick profits. at cost of small investors.
OK, sorry for all that part. BUT I fear or worry over misinformation. WHOM in media covering or supporting antitrust to the general public? Educating them, even if not in the market themselves. But will play in the role of will you have a job. or just how this factors in on general economy.
Love it Matt. Thanks for your great work. Merry Christmas.
The important thing is to keep up the antitrust momentum. If it stalls then a long time could pass before there is another opportunity to reign in monopolies.
Succinct and top analysis. Thanks for bringing us all together!
Corporate managers abandoning merger + acquisition deals out of concern that the FTC will challenge them is a phenomenon not seen in over 50 years. As this miasma of anxiety settles in over Wall Street, we can (finally) see the cracks in the neo-liberal order, with its pundits and supporters making fear-based claims that are collapsing in the face of a run of anti-trust victories that promise to continue. The deep-seated consolidation mentality of yore helps explain the resistance to a rational competition policy, and the lineup of “serious” folks who support it suggest that the corporatist approach will linger for some time, especially given the corporate biases of Federal Court judges, including those nominated by Democrats. The battles continue, the war is not close to being won, and in the meantime, we hope that the anti-trust infrastructure being constructed now can be sustained for decades to come.
great couple of updates, outlook seems pretty good, I wonder how a hard landing affects all this...
And the EU just brought formal proceedings against X for several suspected infringements and disinformation, hate speech, etc. under their new Digital Services Act, which has tough new rules for Big Tech (and huge fines!). In the US some companies are pulling their ads from X. Happy Holidays!
Great stuff! Will we some day come up with a new New Deal? Where everyone (hopefully) becomes a winner?
I have to ask the question... What does this bode for the financing of the Trump campaign? A bunch of pi$$ed off CEOs with deep pockets and a presidential election year in a post-Citizens United America could help ensure a Trump victory...
Well, Koch, in particular, has been raising money for Nikki Haley. and other big pocket pacs have been raising money for not Trump Republicans. It seems that Trump is too off the wall for some rich guys.
"It seems that Trump is too off the wall for some rich guys."
Totally agree. Biden would normally be a no-brainer for the C-suite crowd over totally crazy. But if they feel that another 4 years of Biden could reverse much of neoliberal policies that have made them rich, they might make a deal with the devil in hopes they can control him. That was actually the concern, but I didn't really explain it well.
May not see that, TELL it gets down to a two person race. BUT, well we see a three horse race? Note: and wish those that working on save Democracy on global scale. SHOW how Russia is or did become a democracy. When Puten first got elected. That was a 5 horse race where Puten won with about 22% of vote and last place got around 18%.
NOW, no I would not call what Russia has or held that democracy. but in fact is what I fear we`re heading to at best. IF, something is done to educate people on this matter.
Great piece Matt. Than you. This year, I've recommended your substack to multiple friends to replace the less than informed media we used to rely on. They are greatful for your indepth reporting. Also, podcasts I listen to are very much complimentary of the antitrust actions. I think more and more of us are informed by the alternatives to CNBC (gave that up in 2001) and the other sources you cited. And Larry Summers? Lol.
Another important judicial ruling was Apple patent case that will halt the sales of Apple Watches https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/18/technology/apple-ban-watch-sales-patent-dispute.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Yup
I just saw that after reading this - combined with abandoning the Adobe-Figma merger - they are on a ROLL. That might even make my far-right wing father vote for Biden if he were still alive.
"But Wall Street dealmakers and lawyers are the most irrationally confident people I’ve ever met, and they are now voicing public doubts about consolidation." My impression is that a lot of the confidence is a ploy to get what they want. Literal confidence-men who hope that exerting influence across an array of information networks will bring the outcomes that they wish for and which will make them money. The claims they make can always be proven later once they have enough money/power. That they are changing their tune might indicate their influence isn't as strong as it once was.
Regarding “Both [Adobe and Figma] will go their separate ways, competing to bring the best design software integrated with AI image generation,” I think it’s highly likely that Figma will continue to explore acquisition, this time with less explicitly design-oriented acquirers (Microsoft or the like).
Investors want a return on their investment, an exit is inevitable. And I don’t think Figma will IPO.
Opinions on monopolies aside, Figma is a great tool, and I worry that its utility will decline once it’s owned by a company that cares less about supporting designers than an Adobe might.
The Lufthansa monopoly which is part of the Star Alliance with United. After flying to the USA with Lufthansa, I missed my flight because my first flight was delayed by an hour, in fact it just fell out of the row, and so we were an hour late to Frankfurt, which meant I could not catch my connection, but I could have the last plane to US. Noticing that my daughter will fly in a week from a different German city to Frankfurt and then the US, I was worried because the woman there told me that Berlin is one of the 3 cities that constantly have delays. First of all, Lufthansa offers a student rate, which was supposed to be 800 rt, but ended up being 1000. I noticed that around 400 of it is fees. Anyway, I decided to rebook her for a flight an hour earlier, so she could still go to some classes before coming home for the holidays. First the software offered me a change for $150, which was cheaper then the 450 for a regular ticket from Berlin to Frankfurt. I did not want to get her a separate ticket, because I wanted her luggage to go through. However, after an hour of trying it would not go through. So, then I called Lufthansa. My customer service representative Damien, told me that to change one leg of one part of her trip would cost me $1219, which is crazy. He got annoyed when I said that. I was particularly annoyed because on their website Lufthansa says that they change all flights for free after August 24. So, Damien told me to go online if I did not like what he said. So, I went to the Lufthansa chat. That is where I was told first that they could rebook to the hour earlier departure time for $150, but then suddenly the chat help could not, because she told me it was a different category. I did not notice this different category, but I don't know what they mean, if is leaving Berlin an hour earlier, and they have seats, and also, if she misses her flight to the USA for the night, they will have to rebook her for free and put her up in a hotel. They could have had 150 from me to avoid this. I complained to them, and have not heard. Now, I am going to complain to the FAA. ---An update to the story is that my daughter flew. Her plane left Berlin a predictable 1:30 minutes late, and made it to Frankfurt in about 50 minutes. That left her with about 20 minutes to catch the last flight to Chicago. That is going from A to the Z69 the very end and passing through toll. So, she took a big puff from her inhaler asked them to call ahead and ran to the point where she made it, since the plane took off 30 minutes late, and was sick feeling. She got to Chicago and where was her suitcase. After 2.5 hours getting through customs she found her suitcase was not there. She has nothing. She has been sharing my hairbrush and we scrounged up a toothbrush for her. She put in a ticket online and we have heard nothing. That was Friday. So, Lufthansa, lies, was going to charge me 1219€ to change a ticket that if I just bought that one leg from Berlin to Frankfurt would have cost 450+ fees and taxes. She is here and that is the most important thing, but she has a lot of treasured clothing in her bag, her asthma medicines, and Lufthansa must all be on holiday because there is absolutely no one handling this situation. At the airport, without even checking they just told everyone if their bags were not there were still in Frankfurt and would be coming. However, one kid had taken a wrong bag and was trying to get back in to return it. My friend told me that since it was the to leg and not the from, they would give you a 1500€ voucher for replacing your things (which is a lot more than they wanted to get from me to move her to a flight an hour earlier). No wonder their unions have to strike if this is how they manage their money. Since no one told us anything, we will keep our receipts as we replace the necessities. What receipts. Where can we replace her clothing on Christmas Eve? Sounds like they just don't care.
Well, here is some ally on the quest to break big bank monopolies. I just got a job offer today for “We are looking for a Mainframe Production Support Engineer with 4-7 years of experience in development and maintenance of Mainframe applications for one of our biggest client in banking & capital markets domain. Experience in handling critical application outages in large scale operations & driving root cause analysis and remediation. Troubleshoot technical issues to establish the root cause of problems and form a solution or workaround.” A lot of banks still rely on these Jurassic tools. They run their system on tools that are simply dying, as are the few remaining humans that still know how to run them. It’s beyond me that these banks are still in business.
Because the shareholders are happy?
Well reading this and noting, THE PEOPLE like Cramer. Where when he got his TV show on stock picks. Where he gave very bad picks, over or from market those trying and done just manipulating market for short turn profits. Cost from small investors or those that do not understand. Case in point, two year or so ago. Where people on Reddit, started a market move on, I think poor company to start with do not remember the name of. BUT, You had the big player on Wall street, Stating we can`t have this, That`s our game or having others doing what they been doing. making of big short moves then just fall apart. Goal to win on long and short, quick profits. at cost of small investors.
OK, sorry for all that part. BUT I fear or worry over misinformation. WHOM in media covering or supporting antitrust to the general public? Educating them, even if not in the market themselves. But will play in the role of will you have a job. or just how this factors in on general economy.
My Name is NoBody, (1vs160)